Time is running out for Bashar Assad

From: the Economist

Time is running out for Bashar Assad

Though Syria’s embattled president seems bent on self-destruction, keep offering him a sensible exit
Nov 19th 2011 from the print edition

IN THE past fortnight, Bashar Assad’s regime has become both lonelier and bloodier. As the isolation of the president and his country have become more stark, you would think that he would become keener to negotiate his way out of his murderous impasse. Yet he seems to be doing the precise opposite. After the Arab League’s offer to mediate, his security forces have sharply increased their rate of killing. Rather than engage seriously with the democratic opposition, Mr Assad seems ever more determined to crush it. As a result, the league took the dramatic step, on November 12th, of suspending Syria from membership. Unless Mr Assad changes course, he risks ending up like Muammar Qaddafi in Libya. Yet even at this late hour it is still worth trying to make him see sense (see article).

As peaceful protests against Mr Assad’s regime gathered steam, he had reckoned that Syria’s pivotal place in the Arab world would dissuade his fellow Arabs, as well as Turks and Persians, from turning against him. Instead the pace at which he is running out of friends seems to be quickening. Turkey, his biggest neighbour to the north, and the region’s emerging power, has abandoned hope that he can reform his country or save his regime. Turkey now plays host to Syria’s political opposition. The king of Jordan, to the south, hitherto cautiously neutral, has bluntly told Mr Assad to go. Most of Mr Assad’s counterparts in the Gulf, after initially hedging their bets, are now spurning him. Iraq’s Shia-led government, which used to fear the prospect of a Sunni regime displacing Mr Assad and his Alawites, has become chillier. Even Iran, his strongest local backer, betrays doubts over whether to stick with him for ever.

Just as worrying for Mr Assad, China and Russia, which have blocked a blanket imposition of sanctions against Syria in the UN Security Council, may be forced to reconsider their stand. China is edging away from wholehearted diplomatic support and even Russia now thinks it prudent to hobnob with the leader of Syria’s main opposition front. The international tide is plainly turning against Mr Assad.

Still time for talking

Even at this late stage, it is to be hoped that all-out civil and sectarian war can be avoided. Though a large majority of his compatriots surely hate Mr Assad’s gangster regime which his father established over 40 years ago, a substantial minority may still back him. The Alawites and Christians that each make up a tenth of the populace are especially nervous about change. In Homs, Syria’s third city, sectarian strife has taken an ugly turn. If the country were to fall into chaos, the suffering would be grievous and could spill across borders.

On paper, Mr Assad accepted the Arab League’s sensible if optimistic plan to bring the fighting to an end. Under its terms he should have withdrawn his forces from the towns, freed political prisoners (estimated by human-rights groups at between 10,000 and 20,000), let in foreign journalists and a legion of Arab League diplomats and observers, and undertaken talks with the opposition, eventually leading to multiparty elections. In fact Mr Assad let out a few hundred prisoners but ignored the other recommendations.

For sure, if his army had withdrawn from the cities, Syria would probably have been enveloped in vast rallies that might have swept away his regime. Mr Assad avoided that outcome by intensifying the repression and, in an act of crass stupidity, allowed his thugs to attack the diplomatic missions of Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, whose governments had had the temerity to criticise him. Even so, the Arab League plan is still on the table and on November 16th the league threatened sanctions if Mr Assad did not co-operate within three days. So he has a last chance.

Western governments, while squeezing Mr Assad with economic sanctions and seeking to widen and tighten them via the UN Security Council, should encourage the league, rejuvenated by the Arab awakening. If the conflict in Syria descends into a bloodbath, the league may eventually invoke still more robust measures, as it did towards Qaddafi’s Libya. It is much harder to intervene in Syria than in Libya. Members of its opposition are unwisely calling for Western intervention immediately. It would be much better if Mr Assad were eased out by his compatriots and by fellow Arabs in the region. If he refuses to heed them, a worse fate may befall him.

Blogger comment:
Bashar does not care about human lives he is like Qaddafi wants to stay in power with all the death that can cost his people. The case is closed with him. The Economist wants to give him a last chance which is OK but he did have many people talking to him and he wants to kill his way out like his father did when he killed thousands of Syrians and stayed in power after that for decades. The one that have support from is Iran it is best opportunity to get Iran loosing best support and meanwhile have the west close in her without war against Iran. Again no ground troops like in Libya and target bombing to Bashar to kill him or having him leave. Again like in Libya I said the Libyans should pay NATO the cost of the war same as well here in Syria. No doubt it is never more clear to both Israel and the Arab streets that they both have the common interest to get the current Iranian regime from running the policies in this area. They are talking about injustice and oppression and they are the most to oppress the Sunni in Iraq, Syria and even Iran. We did not get anything from Iran president that was positive to Muslims all he did are boring speeches that did not change anything and boring nuclear program which he did not convince us it is really for his people benefit and no nuclear heads are planned you do not get any plain truth from him. Just distraction and when Muslims turn against him he call for Iranian patriotism. Though he is silencing his moderate people in his country who should jump now and protect Iran from these unnecessary hard policies. Again Iran did not inspire the revolutions and its positions in Iraq and Syria make us even very sad about their anti-Sunni positions and their stand of some of our revolutions.