New Window of Opportunity

From: Arab News

By: Linda Heard

IF the past is any predictor of the future, I hesitate to say, “Good news for Middle East peace”. However, there is certainly a new confluence of positive factors that could effect dramatic change, including a new tenant in the White House as well as new Israeli leadership.

During the Bush presidency the Israel-Palestine peace process has remained at a standstill. All efforts made by Americans and Israelis have been little more than lip service, while the main Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas have spent more time feuding than working toward a two-state solution. But just as the future seemed bleak, the attitude of the Israeli government appears to be changing in a positive way.

First of all, the Israeli Foreign Ministry says it is open to negotiating a “nonbelligerence pact” with Lebanon contingent on a similar deal with Syria, which would prevent another war erupting on the scale of 2005 when over 1200 innocents were killed. This comes at an opportune moment for both Beirut and Damascus, currently forming the kinds of diplomatic ties that good neighbors on an equal footing usually cement.

BUT an even more exciting development is the news that Israel is revisiting the Arab peace initiative, first unveiled on March 28, 2002 at an Arab League summit held in Beirut, reaffirmed at the league’s 2005 Algiers meet and, again, in Riyadh during March 2007.
The plan, broadly based on the principle of “land for peace”, offers normal relations with the league’s 22 member states in return for Israel’s agreement to:
•Its withdrawal behind 1967 borders.
•A Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
•The right of return for Palestinian refugees.
•Israeli settlements being dismantled.
•Its relinquishment of the Golan Heights to Syria.

Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak is leading the charge on the re-examination of the Arab initiative backed by President Shimon Peres and reportedly also by Prime Minister-designate Tzipi Livni, who has been reticent about making a supportive statement on the issue. This is probably because she has yet to form the next coalition government.

According to Barak, his change of heart emanates from the lack of progress on the Syrian and Palestinian tracks thus far. But there is probably a lot more to it, not least Russia’s renewal of its old friendship with Syria. Despite Israel’s pleas, Russia still plans to station S-300 missiles within Syrian borders and it enjoys strategic leverage from permanent naval bases in Latakia and Tartus. In the long run, Israel is further concerned about the Jewish Israeli/Arab Israeli/Palestinian demography, which threatens Israel’s “Jewish state” status simply because Arab Israelis and Palestinians have bigger families than Israeli Jews. This threat is further compounded by the unwillingness of Russian and East European Jews to immigrate to Israel as they did in the past.

One of Israel’s biggest fears about becoming a shrinking minority is the inevitable international pressure for a one-state solution that would surely emerge.
From Israel’s perspective, a comprehensive peace deal would ensure the continuance of the Jewish state, albeit paired down, provide security within the neighborhood and greatly reduce any perceived threat from Tehran.

It’s true that Iran currently denies it supports the Arab plan but it’s unlikely to go out on a limb when presented with a fait accompli.

But there is many a slip between cup and lip. Although it looks like Barack Obama is about to become the leader of the so-called free world, whatever sympathy he may have for the dire Palestinian situation, he may be constrained in his actions to avoid being labeled “anti-Jewish” or even “anti-American”.

In other words, his antecedents on his father’s side and his middle name “Hussein” may make him hesitant to show what some Americans could term bias. He would be better off working behind the scenes while allowing the Israelis and the Arabs center stage.

If Israel is sincere about reviewing the Arab peace plan, then the Arab League should display similar goodwill and become proactive. Saudi Arabia has previously stated it is not willing to talk to Israel unless it first accepts all conditions contained in the initiative but this should not prevent, say, Qatar engaging in indirect or even direct dialogue to pave the way.

In turn, Israelis must be persuaded by their new leadership to make necessary sacrifices for long-term peace and security. They can no longer have their cake and eat it if they want to live in harmony with Palestinians and their Arab neighbors.

Similarly Palestinians must quit their power play and come together for the sake of everyone involved. There must be only one Palestinian authority running the West Bank and Gaza headed by someone with a mandate to negotiate peace on behalf of Palestinians everywhere.

Hamas threatens to appoint its deputy parliamentary speaker to the office of president when the term of Mahmoud Abbas ends on Jan. 9, which is far from helpful, and could lead to further bloodshed.

Amid an emerging new world order in which US power is likely to be diminished, Israel should strike while the iron’s hot to forge peace else put the long-term future of a Jewish state in jeopardy. The time for empty debate is over. The time for serious action is now.

Blogger comment:

1- Very good move by the Israeli, they look scheming very well all the world of politics.

2- It is better for them and the Palestinian to move in more pace now. The longer we wait the more things get complicated.

3- Solving this conflict will also diminish much the Iranian-Syrian-Hezb Allah zealous.

4- It may be even possible for the first time to surprise the new American president by a ready to go plan. We do not care who will be the president since both Senators McCain and Obama are great guys and they will be looking for a just peace.

5- All Arab should be happy about it. More of money and resources will be directed to peace and prosperity.

6- Barak is serious about it he was the most generous of Israeli to give for good deals to the Palestinians. He is considered a hero to the Israeli and in strong position to make deals and He has President Peres and Prim minister Livni both are moderate and straightforward politicians.

7- Our struggle to free the Arab countries is an internal affair we should work it together as Arabs and Muslims. Get Israel out of our entanglements.

8- The Arab countries are looking much for this deal since their masses are fed up by their policies in every front. It will improve their status. For us the Arabs/Muslims it will be a dream come true and give our attention to our problems. The Jews lived between us for hundreds of years. When I was child the best of our neighbours were Jews. The Israeli have to be careful that some in the Christians right for misunderstanding of prophecies do not like to see peace happen. Jesus (PBUH) would love to see a just peace for all of us.